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Abstract We investigate how sea ice decline in summer and warmer ocean and surface temperatures in winter affect sea ice growth in the Arctic. Sea ice volume changes are estimated from satellite observations during winter from 2002 to 2019 and partitioned into thermodynamic growth and dynamic volume change. Both components are compared to validated sea ice-ocean models forced by reanalysis data to extend observations back to 1980 and to understand the mechanisms that cause the observed trends and variability. We find that a negative feedback driven by the increasing sea ice retreat in summer yields increasing thermodynamic ice growth during winter in the Arctic marginal seas eastward from the Laptev Sea to the Beaufort Sea. However, in the Barents and Kara Seas, this feedback seems to be overpowered by the impact of increasing oceanic heat flux and air temperatures, resulting in negative trends in thermodynamic ice growth of -2 km 3 month -1 yr -1 on average over 2002-2019 derived from satellite observations. 

Abstract. In September 2019, the researchicebreaker Polarstern started the largest multidisciplinary Arctic expedition to date,the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of ArcticClimate) drift experiment. Being moored to an ice floe for a whole year,thus including the winter season, the declared goal of the expedition is tobetter understand and quantify relevant processes within theatmosphere–ice–ocean system that impact the sea ice mass and energy budget,ultimately leading to much improved climate models. Satellite observations,atmospheric reanalysis data, and readings from a nearby meteorologicalstation indicate that the interplay of high ice export in late winter andexceptionally high air temperatures resulted in the longest ice-free summerperiod since reliable instrumental records began. We show, using aLagrangian tracking tool and a thermodynamic sea ice model, that the MOSAiCfloe carrying the Central Observatory (CO) formed in a polynya event northof the New Siberian Islands at the beginning of December 2018. The resultsfurther indicate that sea ice in the vicinity of the CO (<40 kmdistance) was younger and 36 % thinner than the surrounding ice withpotential consequences for ice dynamics and momentum and heat transferbetween ocean and atmosphere. Sea ice surveys carried out on variousreference floes in autumn 2019 verify this gradient in ice thickness, andsediments discovered in ice cores (so-called dirty sea ice) around the COconfirm contact with shallow waters in an early phase of growth, consistentwith the tracking analysis. Since less and less ice from the Siberianshelves survives its first summer (Krumpen et al., 2019), the MOSAiCexperiment provides the unique opportunity to study the role of sea ice as atransport medium for gases, macronutrients, iron, organic matter,sediments and pollutants from shelf areas to the central Arctic Ocean andbeyond. Compared to data for the past 26 years, the sea ice encountered atthe end of September 2019 can already be classified as exceptionally thin,and further predicted changes towards a seasonally ice-free ocean willlikely cut off the long-range transport of ice-rafted materials by theTranspolar Drift in the future. A reduced long-range transport of sea icewould have strong implications for the redistribution of biogeochemicalmatter in the central Arctic Ocean, with consequences for the balance ofclimate-relevant trace gases, primary production and biodiversity in theArctic Ocean.